Last Gasps?

Before we get into it…

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Trend Channels

• Trend channels are an important element of technical analysis.

• The upper and lower trendlines of the channels represent resistance and support.

• These resistance support levels often work but not always. Minor trendline overthrows are acceptable.

• Significant breaks of the trendlines suggest an acceleration of the trend or confirmations of trend reversals.

• The chart below shows two channels for NDX, blue and gray.

• I do not expect NDX to significantly exceed the upper blue trendline; it is a formidable resistance.

• The break of the lower gay trendline would be the first indication of an MT trend reversal.

• The break of the lower blue trendline would be more significant.

• In addition to these levels, one should consider Mas, the Fibonacci levels, and the price support level for indications of trend reversal.

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Sentiment

• There are many sentiment and valuation indicators at multi-decade extremes.

• The chart below (courtesy of SentimenTrader) shows unprecedented long positioning of small speculators (retail), exceeding anything seen in the last 35 years.

• This cannot last much longer, IMO. And a potential reversal may be painful for retail traders/investors. When will that reversal happen? I think soon, but we need to check with what Magnificent 7 think.

Follow BraVoCycles on X

• For your full benefit, please follow me on X. Many premium subscribers do.

• Below is my post on X from this weekend about the S&P500 Book Value. Its Book Value reached the 2000 level. Subsequently, the S&P 500 underwent a significant bear market.

• Will the history repeat? Likely. When is a reversal going to happen? Looks like it depends on Magnificent 7 to a great extent. 

Market Summary

Market Data

As of close on 8 July 2024.

What Has Been

• Major US stock market indexes were mixed on Monday. Largely a non-event day.

• Dow declined 31.08 points or -0.08% to 39,344.79

• S&P 500 advanced 5.66 points or 0.1% to 5,572.85

• Nasdaq advanced 50.98 points or 0.28% to 18,403.74

• Russell 2000 advanced 11.94 points or 0.59% to 2,038.67

• Major Asian and European stock markets had red days. Maybe they are giving a hint to the US stock market. 

• The yield on the 10-year Treasury note fell less than 1 basis point to 4.267%, and the rate on the 30-year bond dropped 1.1 basis points to 4.457%. 

What is Next

• As you can deduct from my recent cycle and EW analysis, I expect a reversal in  . . .

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