Is Stock Market’s Driven by Fundamentals or Speculation?

Did Investors Embrace “Trump’s Put?”

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Today we will be covering...

  • Today, we will examine the emerging markets ETF (EEM).

  • Although we predicted a market rebound and have still higher targets, the most recent news flow is helping to reach these targets sooner rather than later.

  • There appears to be a lot of short covering also.

Emerging Market Cycles 

  • The dominant cycle on the weekly Emerging Markets ETF, EEM chart is the 184W cycle, or so-called 3.5Y Khichin cycle.

  • The trough of this cycle is expected in the second half of 2026.

  • We will explore the daily and weekly cycles in more detail in the Pro newsletter.

Sentiment & Technical Analysis

  • As the CNN’s Fear & Greed Index approaches Extreme Greed, investors should be getting more cautious..

  • NYSE Adv/Dec Line made a new high on Tuesday. IT pulled back a bit on Wednesday (not shown).

  • That is generally not a bearish development. 

  • Will SPX follow? Typically SPX should follow the Adv/Dec Line to a new high.

  • Note, however, that at the Feb SPX peak Adv/Dec Line exhibited negative divergence. That is, while SPX was making new highs, the Adv/Dec Line failed to do so.

  • Subsequently, SPX went through a deep correction.

BraVoCycles on X

  • Consider following me on X (former Twitter) in addition to the newsletter, as I often post valuable information there in real time between the newsletters.

    • Bearish hedge funds capitulated on Monday with a “lemon squeeze” short covering.

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