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Is Stock Market Ignoring Recession Possibility?
Is US Economy Recession Proof?
BraVoCycles Newsletter
April 29, 2025
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Today we will be covering...
Today, we will talk about a possible recession in the US.
WSJ reported that Jamie Dimon told investors last week that the ‘best case outcome’ is now a recession for the U.S.
There is more. Ray Dalio warned ‘Something Worse Than a Recession’ looms, saying America ‘Has a Debt Issue’ and is ‘In a Period Very Much Like the 1930s.’
Are Dimon and Dalio to pessimistic?
US Recession Around the Corner?
On Sunday, I posted some indications that consumers might be stretched and cautious, and I tweeted more on X about different recession signals.
The chart below from Apolo illustrates the progression to recession, according to the view of Apolo’s Chief Economist.
Could he be right?
There is a solid probability of it happening.
Sentiment & Technical Analysis
The CNN’s Fear & Greed Index improved from 35 to 37, but is still in Fear.
The chart below shows a pair of technical indicators we used before to identify market reversals. I should have shown it earlier, but there was always something more “urgent.”
When the McClellan Volume Summation Index reverses before the net new 52-week highs and lows, it is a relatively reliable signal of reversal in SPX.
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Interested in gold?
Watch the latest short- and long-term cycle analysis of gold.
BraVoCycles on X
Consider following me on X (former Twitter) in addition to the newsletter, as I often post valuable information there in real time between the newsletters.
If you want to know what the FED is going to do, watch the T-Bill market.
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