Gap-and-Go Tuesday

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News Buzz

• Tech stocks took the baton in a broad rally following less-than-expected PPI growth. 

• Traders see a big drop in interest rates into 2025, at risk of underestimating inflation.

• Starbucks had its best day ever after changing the CEO. 

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Is SPX Bounce Over?

• I called the July top and reversal on Monday last week.

• Should I try to call the top of SPX bounce? Why not?

• SPX was bouncing on a declining volume for the last 6 trading days.  Usually a bearish sign.

• SPX is facing some resistances slightly higher: 1) 50D MA, 2) 61.8% retrace fib level, and 3) red down-trend resistance line.

• Will they stop SPX?

• 61.8% fib would be an ideal target for ((b)).

• Does SPX need to oblige to these resistances? No, they are just potential reversal levels.

• As a matter of fact, one can make counterarguments: 1) CNN’s Fear & Greed is in the fear region, 2) Some cycle projections point up, 3) SPX is coming off oversold conditions, 4) SPX gapped over 10D EMA (red MA) establishing a ST trend up.

• Overall, a mixed picture.

Do You Think SPX Has Topped?

Market Summary

Market Data

As of 9 pm on 13 Aug. 2024.

What Has Been

• Traders reacted to a positive PPI with a gap-and-go market day in the US.

• The US and Europe were green, Asia mixed.

• Dow advanced 408.63 points or 1.04% to 39,765.64. 

• S&P 500 advanced 90.04 points or 1.68% to 5,434.43. Nasdaq advanced 407 points or 2.43% to 17,187.61. 

• Russell 2000 advanced 33.12 points or 1.61% to 2,095.2.

What is Next

• The strong day on Tuesday eliminated a bunch of EW counts in NDX and SPX.

• The CPI is the next major catalyst, not to forget the Middle East crisis and possible Iranian attack.

• In the short term, the preponderance of evidence suggests still higher for major indexes, but caution is required as indexes can also turn soon, and as I mentioned on Sunday, it is a mixed picture, not an easy call.

• My MT and LT views have not changed. . .

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