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Today, we will examine the cycles and Elliott Wave count of JP Morgan (JPM), the largest US bank with $3.81 trillion under management.
FOMC December 10, 2025 – Super Concise Summary Decision
25 bps cut → Fed funds now 3.50%–3.75%
Most divided vote (9-3) since 2019
Key Takeaways
Only one more 25 bps cut expected in 2026 (Dot Plot)
Inflation still “somewhat elevated” → pause likely early 2026
Growth upgraded to 2.3% (2026), unemployment 4.4%, core PCE 2.5%
Tariffs seen as one-time price shock, not persistent inflation
Powell’s Presser (in 3 bullets)
“Close call” on the cut (9:3)
Labor market softening faster than headlines show
“Well positioned to wait” – data-dependent, no hurry to cut again
Will resume Treasury bill purchases ($40B starting Dec 12).
Market vibe: Hawkish cut → rates likely on hold for a while (not my opinion)
JPM Cycles
I posted before cycles, and Elliott Wave count for $XLF ( ▲ 1.15% ), the financial sector ETF. The outlook was not positive for 2006 and the next several years.
The three dominant cycles from the $JPM ( ▲ 3.2% ) weekly chart suggest weakness much of 2026.
JPM has completed, or is about to do so, five primary waves from the 2009 low.
If my counting of sub-waves is correct, that should correspond to a cycle-degree wave V, and super-cycle-degree wave (III).
A multi-year correction should follow.
BravoCyles on Youtube
Watch my latest YouTube video about Apple: As Apple Goes, the Market Goes: Top Incoming in Early 2026?
BraVoCycles on X
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What’s Next for the Stock Market?
The stock market reacted positively to the rate cut, but the gains were reversed in the after-hours session.
This may have more to do with about 10% drop in ORCL after disappointing earnings. NFLX may have also added some weight due to concerns about bidding for Warner Bros. Discovery. . .
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