So Far So Good

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Today we will be covering...

• Market Summary

• Technical Analysis

• Cycle Analysis of Major Indexes

• EW Analysis of Major Indexes

• VIX/VXX Update

• Bonds

• Forex

Market Summary

My top call mid-last week has worked. So far so good.

Although some indexes could still make higher highs, others are less likely to do so. My probability ranking that major indexes already topped is 1. RUT; 2. NDX; 3. SPX; 4. DJI.

Repeat from last week:

The short-term analysis is becoming more in line with the intermediate—and long-term analyses, which suggests a reversal is due. The lightning could strike unexpectedly around the tops.

My longer-term expectations do not change. I will repeat from the weekend report: “Despite the market's resiliency and FOMO, I expect a correction in the next 2-4 months, initially.

Market data as of close on 15 Mar. 2024.

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Technical Analysis

After 3 red candles, SPX stopped on the channel's lower trendline.

It penetrated the trend-defining 10D EMA (which has not turned down, yet), but not sufficiently to declare the change of trend.

The gap is a magnet so SPX will likely break the channel but it may pause/bounce off the support. Below the orange support line will be a good indication that SPX topped several days ago.

RUT broke the downtrend line (DTL) of the blue wedge or ending diagonal (ED) in EWT terminology. The ED is a terminal wave pattern. This ED likely completed C of A-B-C corrective pattern since the October low.

Looking at the technical indicators, we could notice that they are dramatically diverging relative to the price points at labels A and C. That’s typical in 3-wave corrective patterns, although it does not need to be that dramatic, and increases the probability that RUT is starting a multi-month downtrend.

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