Has the Expected Bounce Started?

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Table of Contents

• Summary

• Technical Analysis

• Sentiment

• Bitcoin Buzz and Analysis

• Guest Post

• Additional Reading Recommendations

• Cycles Update

• Major Indexes Cycle Price Projections and EW Coun …

• VXX Update

• Annex 1 – NVDA, One of AI Leaders

Summary

• Major indexes started the bounce we talked about on Sunday. The bounce could extend for several more trading days, perhaps with some consolidation, before a reversal to down into the March-April time frame for the expected N20W cycle trough;

• The game is again “raise cash” on bounces higher, sell the rip (STR) as traders say, IMO.

• Though we may have one more buy-the-dip (BTD) opportunity for short-term traders.

Check out a recent YouTube (YT) video about AAPL; it is still relevant, and AAPL is a market leader – As AAPL Goes, the Market Goes. Here is the AAPL:

Technical Analysis

• Medium- and long-term state of technical indicators is still warning of a correction to come.

• Major indexes respected daily and weekly technical indicators we have been warning about in December and indexes started 2024 with a correction, but they have a long way to go to reset;

• As discussed in the last report, most hourly indicators were “oversold” and exhibiting nice positive divergences – Mr. Market responded with a strong bounce, see SPX 1H chart in Figure 1;

• SPX may consolidate, or pull back, for a couple of days before trying another push higher

Sentiment

• Intermediate-term sentiment indicators started to reset but have a long way to go before the “fear” becomes prevalent;

• CNN’s Fear & Greed Index slightly cooled off but flirts with extreme greed;

• With expected one more push higher in the next several days it could get into the extreme greed territory again;

Bitcoin Buzz and Analysis

• Bitcoin ETF rate competition accelerates and fees are ranging from 0.2% for Bitwise to 1.5% for Grayscale Bitcoin Trust (GBTC)

  • Bitwise Lowers Fee to 20 Basis Points, Undercutting Competitors

• Will the SEC approve Bitcoin ETF on Wednesday? Will it be “Buy the Rumor, Sell the News?”

  • Bitcoin Hovers Near $47,000 With Investors on ETF Approval Watch

• Bitcoin’s wave structure has become “murky” lately, but another pop higher is possible (it looks like a sideways consolidation recently) – all cycle targets, including the recently generated N20D target have been satisfied, but it is possible after a pullback to generate another short-term up target;

Check our recent YouTube Bitcoin analysis video (it is still relevant);

Guest Post

Enjoy an guest post from a cyclist friend know as parisboy

Read more from parisboy at Analysis and Trading based on Envelopes, Waves, Cycles | Page 623 | Forex Factory

• Could you determine the period of the straddled dominant Bitcoin cycle?

• How about where and when the next cycle peak should occur?

  

• Hints:

   

  

• The figure above displays a 100-day dominant cycle and its 50-day 2nd harmonic in the bottom panel;

• The 2 cycles add together to create the composite cycle wave above;

• Note the summation of the 2 cycles creates a low in the composite wave directly at the peak of the dominant cycle, referred to as the “mid-cycle dip;”

• The visual signature of this “mid-cycle dip” is one of the keys to identifying a dominant cycle by eye.

End Guest Content

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