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- Early Month Positive Seasonality
Hey Market Timer!
What Has Been
A bounce “advertised” on Sunday in the Premium Newsletter was led on Monday by NDX, but small caps did not get the message and were strongly down.
Major indexes in the US were mixed:
Dow advanced 50.66 points or 0.13% to 39,169.52.
S&P 500 advanced 14.61 points or 0.27% to 5,475.09.
Nasdaq advanced 146.7 points or 0.83% to 17,879.3.
Russell 2000 declined 17.62 points or -0.86% to 2,030.07.
Continuing the trend of diverging breadth on the NYSE and NASDAQ, only about 25% of stock on the NYSE finished the day positive.
Asian markets were mixed, while major European markets were green.
Bond yields were again up on Monday. . .
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The News Buzz
Capital Economics’ top economist, Neil Shearing, thinks AI enthusiasm could also help the S&P 500 index SPX reach a peak of 7,000 in 2025, even though he also sees parallels to the previous “dot-com bubble.”
“Wall Street's rally came despite rising Treasury yields and crude. The yield rally could reflect increased deficit and inflation fears connected to recent political developments.” Joe Mazzola, Charles Schwab.
A Trump victory could fuel more inflation. What investors can do now to protect themselves.
Stocks are headed for a ‘summer squall,’ Citi warns.
Russell 2000
Although NDX bounced strongly today, RUT was red despite the positive seasonality and pre-holiday bias. Smells of fund managers used the pension funds inflows to dress up their portfolio with NASDQ winners.
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RUT Cycles
Although there is still no crystalized EW count since May’s high, weekly cycles suggest a down for RUT.
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Positive seasonality & pre-holiday bias, plus ST oversold, helped a strong bounce in #NDX, as "advertized" on Sunday in my Premium newsletter.
$NDX will very likely confirm tomorrow a 5D cycle target to about 19.9k.
#QQQ $QQQ #NQ $NQ— BraVoCycles Newsletter (@BraVoCycles)
10:30 PM • Jul 1, 2024
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What is Next
It is reasonable to expect some positive bias until the 4th of July; then, indexes can do what they are destined to do.
Based on everything I have looked at lately, I expect all indexes to be. . .
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