Early Month Positive Seasonality

Positive 4th of July Bias

Hey Market Timer!

What Has Been

  • A bounce “advertised” on Sunday in the Premium Newsletter was led on Monday by NDX, but small caps did not get the message and were strongly down.

  • Major indexes in the US were mixed:

    • Dow advanced 50.66 points or 0.13% to 39,169.52.

    • S&P 500 advanced 14.61 points or 0.27% to 5,475.09.

    • Nasdaq advanced 146.7 points or 0.83% to 17,879.3.

    • Russell 2000 declined 17.62 points or -0.86% to 2,030.07.

  • Continuing the trend of diverging breadth on the NYSE and NASDAQ, only about 25% of stock on the NYSE finished the day positive.

  • Asian markets were mixed, while major European markets were green.

  • Bond yields were again up on Monday. . .

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The News Buzz

  • Capital Economics’ top economist, Neil Shearing, thinks AI enthusiasm could also help the S&P 500 index SPX reach a peak of 7,000 in 2025, even though he also sees parallels to the previous “dot-com bubble.”

  • “Wall Street's rally came despite rising Treasury yields and crude. The yield rally could reflect increased deficit and inflation fears connected to recent political developments.” Joe Mazzola, Charles Schwab.

  • A Trump victory could fuel more inflation. What investors can do now to protect themselves.

  • Stocks are headed for a ‘summer squall,’ Citi warns.

Russell 2000

  • Although NDX bounced strongly today, RUT was red despite the positive seasonality and pre-holiday bias. Smells of fund managers used the pension funds inflows to dress up their portfolio with NASDQ winners.

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RUT Cycles

  • Although there is still no crystalized EW count since May’s high, weekly cycles suggest a down for RUT.

  • Please follow me on YouTube. Yesterday, I posted this important short video.

  • My posts on X complement the newsletter content between newsletter sends.

Market Summary

Market Data

As of close on 1 July 2024.

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What is Next

  • It is reasonable to expect some positive bias until the 4th of July; then, indexes can do what they are destined to do.

  • Based on everything I have looked at lately, I expect all indexes to be. . .

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