Is Dow Jones in a Trouble?

Table of Contents

• Market Summary

• Technical Analysis

• Dow Jones EW Analysis

• VXX Cycle Projections

• Annex 1: Where is Natty (NG) Going?

• Annex 2: King Dollar (DXY)

• Annex 3: Crypto (Bitcoin) Update

Market Summary

Many people consider Dow Jones Industrials to be the Market. Like “How did Dow close today?” So, looking at the Dow, we get a similar picture to that of SPX and NDX. In my humble opinion, it should start a correction any day. Although a downdraft could take a year, we will focus on an expected cycle trough in about March.

The market may have made a top on Friday afternoon in the short term, but the drop and bounce are not 100% clear from the EWT perspective. Thus, although I prefer further down, I leave a possibility for another pop higher open. Tuesday morning will clarify; down in the first two hours will be positive for my preferred view.

eBook: 3-Year US Stock Market Outlook

Share the link below with your friends and family, and if 2 friends subscribe to BraVoCycles Newsletter using your link, as confirmed by Beehiiv, you get our 3-Year US Stock Market Outlook eBook! We’re excited to share more of our content with your friends and family and the cutting edge technical analysis in our premium membership with you.

Technical Analysis

The technical chart of Dow Jones Industrials ($INDU) is shown in Figure 1.

$INDU momentum peaked in the 2^nd half of December, and RSI and MACD developed negative divergences since then. Negative for $INDU.

Note the black channel defined by the October 2022 and 2023 lows. $INDY slightly penetrated the channel's upper trendline, an overthrow, but it was rejected and pulled back below it.

These are good arguments for a bearish case if you are a bear. And there are more arguments. Another one is the potential Dow Theory sell signal, which I presented about 4 weeks ago. Here is my YT video, still relevant. I do not have any good bullish argument currently.

Nothing about the sentiment today. We have beaten it to death recently.

Subscribe to the Pro Tier to read the rest.