Dow Jones Down- April Fools day?

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Today we will be covering...

• Market Summary

• Chart of the Day- LULU

• Chart of the Week

• Technical Analysis

• Cycle Analysis of Major Indexes

• EW Analysis of Major Indexes

• VIX/VXX Update

• Commodities

• Crypto – Again

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Market Summary

The stock market made an expected higher high in the pre-market hours, but it has been a down day, with a bearish outside reversal in SPY.

I have been tracking two EW micro counts; one may have topped, while the other still allows for another high. I am getting mixed messages from the short-term cycles. It is best to see another card.

Although I generally agree with the below, coming from Cramer makes me cautious about the high being behind us.

Repeat from before:

The short-term analysis is becoming more in line with the intermediate—and long-term analyses, which suggests a reversal is due. The lightning could strike unexpectedly around the tops.

My longer-term expectations do not change. I will repeat from the weekend report: “Despite the market's resiliency and FOMO, I expect a correction in the next 2-4 months, initially.

Market data as of close on 1 Apr. 2024.

Chart of the Day- LULU

Chart of the Week

#SOX (#NVDA etc) to #SPX ratio exceeded the one of 2000. It was not good for #stockmarket after that and for $SOX it was really bad.

My favorite technician once said:

The associated ETF, SMH, had a doji candle today. Although the doji is in a general continuation pattern, a pause in a trend, near the end of trends, it is bearish. In this case, we have a potential three-wave up after a five-wave down move so that it can be the end of a corrective pattern.

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Technical Analysis

A bearish outside reversal in SPY. Bear will like it. But there is nothing to get excited about yet. Need below 518 and to break the DTL of the blue wedge to suggest the top might be in place.

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