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Today we will be covering...

• Market Summary

• Crypto Special

• Cycle Analysis of Major Indexes

• EW Analysis of Major Indexes

• VIX/VXX Update

• Forex

• Bonds

Market Summary

FED’s day, as usual, brought moves in indexes, as hinted on Monday. Powel’s thinking today: “Well, that’s all for today. I hope I triggered all the short stops” (obviously just humor).

Usually, the Fed’s Day gains are reversed the next day, or in the next couple of days!

A few days ago, I ranked the probability of new index highs as 1. DJI, 2. SPX, 3. NDX, and 4. RUT. Well, DJI and SPX did make new highs, and the probability order for NDX and RUT remains the same.

SPX and DJI are making thrusts from triangles, which are terminal moves. If NDX makes another high it will likely be an ending diagonal, also a terminal move. I do not see RUT making a new high, but there is always a possibility that my analysis-based judgment may be wrong. Mr. Market is full of surprises.

Repeat from last week:

The short-term analysis is becoming more in line with the intermediate—and long-term analyses, which suggests a reversal is due. The lightning could strike unexpectedly around the tops.

My longer-term expectations do not change. I will repeat from the weekend report: “Despite the market's resiliency and FOMO, I expect a correction in the next 2-4 months, initially.

Market data as of close on 20 Mar. 2024.

Crypto Special

Below is what I posted on March 11, 3 days before Bitcoin’s peak. It is still relevant. The cycle will be putting pressure on Bitcoin for the rest of 2024 and should support up in 2025.

Below is what I posted on X (former Twitter) last night with some additional comments.

It is likely that the present bounce in Bitcoin may stall in the 67k general area, +/-, and in the next few days to break below the gray FLD (forward line of demarcation) band. This would generate the 40D cycle target to the mid-50k, +/-.

In terms of EW structure, the count below is what I was tracking. Alternatively, the low today may be wave (iii) of a leading diagonal (LD). In any case, a bearish posture.

And my update on X this afternoon.

Ethereum behaves similarly to Bitcoin. After today’s bounce, it should continue down toward the red box 40D cycle target. After a parabolic rise as in Bitcoin and Ethereum you typically have a sharp down when the rise is exhausted. I do not recall situations when parabolic rises are corrected with sideways moves. Just be aware of that.

I am trying to integrate our email newsletter with X (formerly Twitter) whereby on X I post frequently between newsletters in a more timely fashion that is not possible with the newsletter schedule. To get the full benefit you should follow me on X (Twitter):

Sentiment

Short NVDA? It also had a parabolic move-up

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