Corrective Rebound in Progress

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Hong Kong Market

• The Hong Kong market, as represented by iShares MSCI Honk Kong ETF, is expected to have a cycle trough in late August or early September. 

• This is like the Chinese market, which shows a cycle trough in mid-September (see Tuesday’s newsletter).

SPX Technical Analysis

• SPX is forming a Bear Flag pattern. Upon its completion, it should continue down.

• It closed at the 10D EMA and upper trendline of the gray channel and just above 100D MA. These are resistances that could potentially reject SPX.

• But SPX still has that Aug. 2 open gap as a magnet for higher.

Market Summary

Market Data

As of close on 9 August 2024.

What Has Been

• A week ago, I suggested that Monday could bring a long scalp, counter-trend opportunity. Indeed, this happened with a mini panic day on Monday.

• Since then, major indexes have been rebounding in a corrective manner.

• The major markets around the world had a mostly mildly positive up day.

• Dow advanced 51.04 points or 0.13% to 39,497.54.

• S&P 500 advanced 24.85 points or 0.47% to 5,244.16.

• Nasdaq advanced 85.28 points or 0.51% to 16,745.3.

• Russell 2000 declined 3.51 points or 0.17% to 2,080.92.

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What is Next

• The corrective counter-trend bounces are less predictable, but one can expect the downtrend to continue eventually. The question is when exactly.

• There are arguments for more upside in some indexes and arguments for immediate reversal, as I will elaborate in the subsequent sections.

• Speaking of NDX specifically, I have more indications for reversal early next week rather than for a prolonged rebound . . .

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