Consolidation Day

SPX Special - Cycles

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  • FED’s Bostic: Economy is ‘losing momentum’ but there is no sense of looming crash or panic from business leaders.

  • Job openings fall to the lowest level since 2021. It’s getting harder to find work.

  • A new recession warning is about to flash as investors await the July unemployment report.

  • Softening U.S. dollar erases 2024 gain as investors expect FED rate cuts.

  • Harris to push for capital gains below 39.6%, bucking Biden.

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SPX Cycles - 1

  • The next SPX cycle low of significance may be in early November, comprising at least 80D, 20W, and 40W cycle troughs.

  • Coinciding with the US election may be just a coincidence.

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SPX Cycles - 2

  • The powerful 3-3.5Y cycle (Khitchin’s cycle) is very visible in many financial markets (yesterday we showed it for SPX).

  • The chart below shows the 3.5Y (180W) cycle for SPX exhibiting cycle troughs in the 2nd half of 2026 and early 2030.

Sonia Bobbi Lee GIF by Ros na Rún

Gif by rnar on Giphy

Market Summary

As of close on 4 September, 2024

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