- Market Twists & Turns
- Posts
- Choppy Day on Wall Street
Choppy Day on Wall Street
Despite the Choppiness, SPX and NDX Closed Green
Hey Market Timer!
Earn your PE certificate online. Build an MBA-style network.
The Wharton Online + Wall Street Prep Private Equity Certificate Program gives you the knowledge and tools top professionals use to analyze investment opportunities.
Learn from senior leaders at top firms like Carlyle, Blackstone, and KKR.
Get direct access to Wharton faculty in live office hours where concepts become clear, practical, and immediately applicable.
Study on your schedule with a flexible online format
Plus, join an active network of 5,000+ graduates from all over the world.
Enroll today and save $300 with code SAVE300.
Program begins October 6.
Today we will be covering...
Today, we will examine future stock market returns as a function of P/E Ratio valuation.
Market Valuation vs Future Returns
Shiller’s S&P 500 Cyclically Adjusted PE (CAPE) Ratio just hit its 2nd highest level ever—only behind the 2000 dot-com peak.
Extreme bullishness ignores this red flag: High CAPE = Low future S&P 500 returns.
I cannot stress enough how important this is for long-term and buy-and-hold investors to understand.

Similar conclusions can be drawn from the Forward PE Ratio.
The relationship between the forward PE and 5-year annualized return is shown in the chart below.
Based on the PE calculated at the end of September, the 5-year annualized return is estimated to be negative.

BraVoCycles on X
If you are interested in financial markets, you are missing out by not following me on X, as I do not have enough space in the newsletter to post all my research, which I try to share on X. Additionally, I frequently post important real-time updates between newsletters. Follow @BraVoCycles.
The NAAIM post below should not be construed as a short-term sell signal.

To continue reading about what’s next for the stock market, US Markets, Elliott Wave and Technical analysis of US Markets, volatility, as well as commodities, bonds, forex, currencies and crypto, claim your 95% off for 3 months introductory rate and upgrade to Premium Pro. . .
Busy isn’t the goal
Wing turns busy days into real progress. A full-time virtual assistant runs calendars, inboxes, and follow-ups, removing the drag that burns leaders out.
The result: more focus, more output, and the headspace to lead.

Subscribe to the Pro Tier to read the rest.
Become a paying subscriber of Market Twists & Turns - Pro to get access to the rest of this post and other subscriber-only content.
Already a paying subscriber? Sign In.
A subscription gets you:
- • In-depth analysis & analysis multiple times/week on SPX, NDX, DJI, RUT, VIX/VXX, plus
- • Bonds, commodities, forex, international markets, select stocks, & EFTs
- • Technical & Elliott Wave Analysis (EWA)
- • Price projections using Cycle methods and Fibonacci levels
- • Ad-free & downloadable pdf version
Reply