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Can FED Surprise Stock Market?
Be Aware of a Possible Whipsaw on the FED Day.
BraVoCycles Newsletter
January 29, 2025
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Today, we will continue the discussion and provide more details about the Indian stock market, as represented by INDY ETF.
Remember that there is a FED meeting today, often accompanied with stock market whipsaws. The general expectation on Wall Street is that the Federal Reserve will hold the federal funds rate steady.
The stock market yesterday continued the bounce from a gap-down on Monday morning, sparked by the DeepSeek news over the weekend.
Indian Stock Market – Part 2
I consider the Indian stock market as one of the most bullish long term.
Refer to 16 Jan newsletter for my EW chart and cycle analysis of INDY.
INDY is expected to bottom in circle-a of 2 and bounce in circle-b soon.
The chart below shows that INDY is close to satisfying A 40W cycle target, and a bounce is likely to occur from within the red box target region.
However, as shown below, there is an even lower 80W cycle target.
That is a good target for circle-c of 2.
From that range, INDY should start a decisive advance in wave 3 of (3) higher, but it may take several months or more to complete circle-b up and circle-c down.
Sentiment & Technical Indicators
The Fear & Greed Index is between Fear & Greed. Mostly because some components are in Fear and others in Greed.
A mixed picture. It is not very useful until it gets into one or the other extreme.
There was a strong bounce in NDX yesterday. Perhaps investors and traders re-assessed the selloff in the futures on Sun-Mon night prompted by DeepSeek news.
However, the NDX Adv/Dec Percentage (top window) has declined for several days.
The NDX McCllelan Oscillator (bottom window) is downtrending from “overbought” on Jan 21.
These indicators do not reflect strength.
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