A Bounce in Progress

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News Buzz

• The high growth rate of the Chinese economy is past, Say Barclays analysts.

• China’s deflationary spiral is now entering a dangerous phase.

• Stocks bouncing after the worst week for S&P 500 in 18 months.

• Bond traders believe the FED waited too long to cut interest rates.

• Are the ‘Magnificent Seven’ stocks losing luster?

• Optimism returned after the worst week of the year, with gains in sectors that tend to do best in a strong economy. Analysts expect a rate cut next week and benign inflation data.

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Magnificent 7 – MSFT, Then

• Before July's peak, we covered Magnificent 7 stocks that were market leaders in the last few years.

• This is what our analysis indicated about MSFT in mid-June.

Magnificent 7 – MSFT, Now

• The daily cycle composite below suggests a bounce after the sharp drop from the peak in early July.

• However, the weekly cycle composite comprising only dominant 63W and 165W cycles suggests that the next major cycle trough is expected in early 2026.

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Market Summary

As of close on 9 September, 2024

What Has Been

• We expected a bounce, and “market gods” delivered.

• Asia was mixed, and Europe and the U.S. were green.

• Dow advanced 484.18 points or 1.2% to 40,829.59. 

• S&P 500 advanced 62.63 points or 1.16% to 5,471.05. 

• Nasdaq advanced 193.77 points or 1.16% to 16,884.6. 

• Russell 2000 advanced 6.37 points or 0.3% to 2,097.78.

What’s Next

• We got the anticipated bounce.

• The bounce can continue for several more days toward the FED meeting.

• Then I expect a pullback into late September followed by another mid-October +/-rally.

• Then down into November, possibly in 3^rd wave, which implies a stronger drop than in early September.

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