A Bounce in Progress

Magnificent 7 Revisited - MSFT

BraVoCycles Newsletter
September 10, 2024

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News Buzz

The high growth rate of the Chinese economy is past, Say Barclays analysts.
China’s deflationary spiral is now entering a dangerous phase.
Stocks bouncing after the worst week for S&P 500 in 18 months.
Bond traders believe the FED waited too long to cut interest rates.
Are the ‘Magnificent Seven’ stocks losing luster?
Optimism returned after the worst week of the year, with gains in sectors that tend to do best in a strong economy. Analysts expect a rate cut next week and benign inflation data.

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Magnificent 7 – MSFT, Then

Before July's peak, we covered Magnificent 7 stocks that were market leaders in the last few years.
This is what our analysis indicated about MSFT in mid-June.

Magnificent 7 – MSFT, Now

The daily cycle composite below suggests a bounce after the sharp drop from the peak in early July.
However, the weekly cycle composite comprising only dominant 63W and 165W cycles suggests that the next major cycle trough is expected in early 2026.

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Market Summary

As of close on 9 September, 2024

What Has Been

We expected a bounce, and “market gods” delivered.
Asia was mixed, and Europe and the U.S. were green.
Dow advanced 484.18 points or 1.2% to 40,829.59.
S&P 500 advanced 62.63 points or 1.16% to 5,471.05.
Nasdaq advanced 193.77 points or 1.16% to 16,884.6.
Russell 2000 advanced 6.37 points or 0.3% to 2,097.78.

What’s Next

We got the anticipated bounce.
The bounce can continue for several more days toward the FED meeting.
Then I expect a pullback into late September followed by another mid-October +/-rally.
Then down into November, possibly in 3^rd wave, which implies a stronger drop than in early September.

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