Bonds Special

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US Dollar

• This is a partial repost from Friday’s premium newsletter.

  • Both USD and bond yields have been rallying since the Fed's 0.5% rate cut. If you recall, I suggested that before the Fed meeting, “sell the rumor, buy the news,” keeping yields in mind.

  • Notice the positive correlation between inverse 30Y Treasuries and USD (DX) in the chart below. 

  • However, it looks like the trend will be longer than I expected initially, as per the composite cycle of US Dollar Index, DXY. . .

Long-Term Bonds – TLT

• The weekly cycle composite of TLT suggests down into early 2025, whether to a new low or not, is TBD.

• Note that the amplitude of the cycle composite should not be extrapolated to the amplitudes of the price moves.

• Correct reading of cycle composite: the turning points of cycle composite correspond approximately to the turning points of price moves.

• TLT ETF is representative of long-term bonds, and their yields move inversely to TLT.

• More about bonds in the premium content.

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