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Lesson: What Can We Say About Bitcoin Targets?
• Several people asked about Bitcoin’s downside price targets.
• Predicting Bitcoin's downside price targets is a complex task that requires a thorough understanding of market dynamics. It is challenging to provide reliable targets before the bounce completes and Bitcoin continues down.
· In my analysis, I will be utilizing the powerful tools of Elliott Wave Theory, technical analysis, and Fibonacci guidelines. These tools provide valuable insights into market trends and potential price targets.
· I will also assume that the bounce is complete or almost so. Although the bounce can be deeper, there are good reasons to stop where it is now: 1) almost exactly 61.8% retrace of the drop from March, 2) hitting the resistance line, and 3) Reaching the highest available cycle target, as shown yesterday.
· Blue Count: An “ideal” target is about 50k because 1) C would be equal to A (green 100% expansion fib), 2) 50% retrace of blue (3), and support level.
· Red Count: a “normal” target for red ((iii)) is about 40k-, because 1) ((iii)) would be equal to the typical 1.618x Fibonacci expansion of wave ((i)) length, plus 2) 1.618% fib almost coincides with a support level. Though sometimes wave 3 is 1.38x or 2.0x the length of wave 1. Exceptionally, wave 3 can be 2.618x the length of 1.
· If/when Bitcoin starts to develop the wave structure down from the peak of the bounce, we can refine the targets using 1) cycle price projections and 2) sub-wave Fibonacci relations.
For your benefit, follow me on X (formerly Twitter), where I often post important and timely charts between newsletters.
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