Bitcoin Special

In this Blog we will explore whether Bitcoin has peaked, or is about to do so soon.

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Bitcoin lost significant momentum before reaching its most recent high. In addition, the RSI has had a month-long negative divergence, and the MACD is curling down.

Of the three alternative EW counts, the green one is less likely. Even under the blue count, Bitcoin can easily reach low-to-mid 40,000s. Under the red count, it is still possible to get to about 15k or lower.

Bitcoin has a confluence of cycles (6, 12, 18, and 46 weeks, plus a very strong 2.5-year) projected to peak between last week and the next 1-2 weeks. Here is the estimated cycle composite.

Bitcoin last night satisfied and exceeded the nominal 40D (6W) cycle target and is “eligible” to bounce. This confirms that the nominal 80D (12W) cycle has peaked.

Bitcoin also generated a preliminary target for the 80D cycle (red dashed line). If/when the median 65-min bar value drops below the 80D gray FLD band, it will confirm the 80D target and also confirm that at least the nominal 20W (18W) cycle has peaked.

If you are interested in the stock market, I guess most subscribers are, check out this newsletter.