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News Buzz

• The US economy generated 818,000 fewer jobs in the 2023–24 span than initially reported.

• BLS’s update of job creation data helps build a case for a FED interest-rate cut.

• The “Magnificent Seven” are not dominating the market anymore - For the first time in nearly two years, the other 493 companies in the S&P 500 are in the lead, according to BMO.

• FED set to cut interest rates in September, FOMC minutes show. Some even favored the July move.

• FED minutes flag Treasury-market leverage as a risk.

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Bitcoin – 3.5Y Cycle

• The 3-3.5Y cycle is powerful and dominant in Bitcoin. This cycle will not bottom until late 2025.

• Do you recall all that excitement a few months back when a dozen or so Bitcoin ETFs were introduced? Let me try to be a bit cynical. I wonder whether these ETF were introduced to the public at the peak of Bitcoin so that institutions can unload their holding to the retail during Bitcoin’s down cycle. Or, maybe just a coincidence?

• Falks on X (former Twitter) were insanely bullish in March for multiple reasons: a) Bitcoin halving, b) Introduction of ETFs, and finally c) positive price action.

• Allow me to tell you an anecdote.

• I called the March peak in Bitcoin to a day. After my Bitcoin peak post on X, I lost more than 10% of my followers. These people were probably thinking, “This guy does not know what he is talking about,” or perhaps they could not stand the bearish Bitcoin post. I do not know.

Rate Cuts vs Stock Market

• The stock market usually declines after the first rate cut. This is true both in the US and Europe.

• Below is an interesting analogy I ran into. 

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Follow BraVoCycles on X

• Consider following my posts on X (former Twitter), as I often post timely charts in between newsletters. My X posts complement the posts in the newsletter.

•  Below is a recent intriguing post.

Market Summary

As of close on 21 August 2024.

What Has Been

• The market is losing momentum.

• The VIX gained more than SPX and other indexes. That usually happens near market tops. Another possibility is that some players were hedging before the Jackson Hole meeting.

• Asia was mixed, while Europe and the US were green.

• Dow advanced 55.52 points or 0.14% to 40,890.49. 

• S&P 500 advanced 23.73 points or 0.42% to 5,620.85. 

• Nasdaq advanced 102.05 points or 0.57% to 17,918.99. 

• Russell 2000 advanced 28.37 points or 1.32% to 2,170.56.

• Treasury yields were down across the board.

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What is Next

• As of finishing this report, after 8 pm EST, index futures are meandering around levels from the market close.

• As you can see from the sections below, there are indications that multiple indexes can reverse. . . 

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