Are Bears Winning?

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• U.S. jobs growth rebounded to 142,000 in August, the government said in Friday's nonfarm payrolls report, but fell short of Wall Street's 160,000 consensus. Steep downward revisions to the June and July totals reinforced ideas of a less vigorous labor market.

• NVDA shed $406 billion in market cap this week.

• Dow logs the worst week since 2023 after softer than expected jobs report.

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Solar Cycles vs Financial Markets – Part 2

• Prechter and Kendal further argue that the peaks in the rate of change of solar numbers correspond to the maximum excitement of investors.

• Prechter and Kendal also noticed that lower peaks precede significant bear markets, though the sample was small.

• Indeed, lower peaks in 2000 and 2014 (see the 2^nd chart below) preceded significant bear markets.

• The sunspot number in the present cycle 25 already exceeded the peak of the 24-th cycle. 

• Does that mean that the next bear market will not be severe? I do not think we can draw that conclusion.

• For example, the peak in the late 30s was higher than the peak in the late 40s, yet DJIA had a significant bear market in the late 30s and into WW II.

• The chart below shows the correlation between 3-year shifted sunspot numbers curves with 10-1 Year T-Note Spread (courtesy of Tom McClellan).

• If this correlation continues to work, we can expect un-inversion in the coming months and possible peaking of 10-1 Year T-Note Spread in 2028 +/-.

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Market Summary

As of close on 6 September, 2024

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