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Beach Ball Market Bounce Into $7.1 Trillion OPEX
Most SPY Puts Expired Worthless on Largest OPEX on Record
BraVoCycles Newsletter
December 21, 2025
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Today, we will examine the cycles of the Magnificent Seven stocks and large-cap stocks ex-Magnificent Seven.
Magnificent 7 – Cycle Analysis
Magnificent 7 stocks, collectively, are losing momentum.
The daily chart cycle composite suggests a week Q1’2026.
How about large-cap stocks excluding Magnificent 7?
Although the dominant cycles are somewhat different, the message is the same-weak Q1’2026.
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What’s Next for the Stock Market?
Record “quadruple witching” OPEX on Friday amounted for 10.2% of the Russell 3000 total market capitalization; notably, virtually all SPY puts expired worthless.
What to expect going into the Holidays?
Trading days/week heading into Christmas are statistically mildly positive.
The Santa Claus Rally corresponds to the last five trading days in December and the first two trading days in January have a strong record; the Santa period is positive ~76–79% of the time since 1950 (average gain ~1.3%).
However, the traditional seasonality periods did not work well this year.
The intermarket divergence continues; Dow generals and small-cap stocks made new highs in December, while SPX and NDX failed to do so, so far. . .
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