After Expected Peak, Stock Market is Selling Off

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Alphabet (GOOG)

• The daily cycle composite suggests an early May+/- cycle trough. It comprises 93, 151, and 203 trading days (TDs) cycles.

• The second chart below shows the powerful about 3.5Y cycle with a cycle trough in the second half of 2026, like for several other stocks and major indexes we looked at.

Sentiment & Technical Analysis

• The CNN’s Fear & Greed Index is back in the lower range of Fear territory. 

• It can support a bounce, but not necessarily so. It is not at extreme fear that a contrarian instinct would suggest a buy, provided other indicators are supportive.

Bitcoin – Technical Analysis

• Bitcoin’s monthly chart is shown below. We can make multiple observations.

• Notice that negative divergences in RSI at significant peaks led to significant corrections.

• The last RSI negative divergence is most pronounced, signifying a loss of long-term momentum.

• Does this mean that the next correction will be more severe than the previous ones? Not necessarily.

• But there are Elliott Wave counts arguments for a significant correction (check out my YouTube videos about Bitcoin).

• One can notice the naked eye, without any cycle tools, that the price lows are separated by about 4 years. There is a similar pattern for price peaks, but less pronounced.

• Clearly, there is a strong about 4Y cycle in the price pattern of Bitcoin.

• Incidentally, this is also approximately the length of Bitcoin’s halving cycle.

• Can you find the best fit of this cycle in the chart pattern?

• Can you identify Bitcoin halving instances on the chart (you can google them)? What is the time offset between the halving instances and the cycle lows. Is there a repeatable pattern?

Follow BraVoCycles on X

• Consider following me on X (former Twitter) in addition to the newsletter, as I often post valuable information there in real time between the newsletters.

  • This weekend, I posted charts summarizing the stock market valuation. The charts signify that the stock market is in an unattractive position for long-term investors.

  • Remember, however, that the valuation metrics do not represent short-term buy or sell signals. They describe the state of the market.

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