As AAPL Goes, the Market Goes

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AAPL – Two Alternatives

• I usually use High-Low bars and median prices for cycle projection.

• Sometimes, I use closing prices to get earlier indications.

• Normally, there is not much difference in actual price projections.

• It appears that the price projections since the August low differ for some instruments for the two approaches due to a long intra-day wick on Monday two weeks ago.

• The chart below shows closing price projection targets for 20D and 40D cycles, represented by green and gray rectangles. The red box is the existing target for the 80D cycle that AAPL failed to reach in August fully.

• The red and blue FLDs represent shorter and longer FLDs to capture the range of cycle variations. Some charts posted before show them as a gray FLD band.

• Crossing of FLDs by median or closing price line determines the cycle price projection target.

• We can see that AAPL's closing price can satisfy overlapping 20D and 40D target boxes without crossing the red and blue FLDs, depending on how far and when it reaches these targets.

• In that case, the existing 80D target will remain valid, and no higher projection will be generated.

• Otherwise, if the closing price line crosses above both FLDs, the existing 80D target down will be invalidated, and a much higher projection will be generated.

• The following chart is analogous to the previous chart but uses the median price for price target projections. The difference is dramatic

• While the 20D and 40D targets were below the August high in the former case, they are above it in the latter case, and satisfying price targets would invalidate the existing 80D target and generate a new one to about the 280-290 range.

• It will be essential to watch for signs of a reversal below the August high.

• Linear and logarithmic price scales can also provide different target projections.

• When the price variation range is not too extensive, they provide very similar projections.

• However, when the price variation is on the order of 100% or so, the logarithmic scale is recommended as it provides more accurate targets.

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