As AAPL Goes, the Market Goes

Table of Contents

• Summary

• NDX Technical Analysis

• AAPL Technical Analysis

• Sick Man of Europe” – Germany ETF (EWG)

• Magnificent 7 Cycles - Part I (AAPL & TSLA)

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Summary

• Bitcoin has continued its slide toward the 38k- to 40k- area, from which a bounce is likely (see last week’s posts);

• As of 11:15 am EST, we are getting the micro pullback I called for, but at a nano/micro level SPX and NDX could still push a bit higher, ideally with an additional up-down-up sequence;

• The game this week should be “Raise CASH,” “CASH is King,” in my opinion;

• Repost from Sunday:

  • Cycles suggest potential top and reversal this week – of course, always need to provide some tolerance to cycle predictions – also need to keep in mind the beginning of February positive seasonality;

  • The wave patterns of main indexes do not look complete, and still slightly higher is possible and to be expected, but caution is required as this week a top is expected;

  • Also, cycle price projection targets still could accommodate somewhat higher in major indexes.

NDX Technical Analysis

• NDX/INDU(DJI) ratio is at a historical extreme, just like in 2000 and Nov’21;

• It will revert to the mean, i.e., correct significantly over time;

  • Will it be like in 2000-2002, or stretched over a longer period?

• RSI exhibits a double negative divergence with price;

• Stochastic turning down from overbought;

• Not favorable for NDX in the medium- and long-term.

AAPL Technical Analysis

• AAPL, one of the market leaders and Magnificent 7, also exhibits technical weaknesses; see RSI negative divergence;

• It closed the downgrade gap and could still push higher, perhaps even to the upper Keltner channel boundary, but the negative divergences will get even more pronounced.

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