A Bit More Upside Market Fuel

Long-Term Caution

BraVoCycles Newsletter
October 11, 2024

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Long-Term Yellow Flag

Since early summer, I have posted a half-dozen charts indicating extreme US market valuation, some of which were 100-year records exceeding 1929 market peak values.
I also warned that these were not short-term timing signals but indicative of sub-par multi-year market performance/returns.
The chart below shows that the household % of financial assets in equities is at levels similar to those seen just before the 1970 and 2000 bear markets.
Two factors likely caused this extreme metric: 1) the stock market rising faster than other household assets, and 2) individual investors investing more dollars due to the rising market.
Although one can argue that the market will advance a couple of more percent from here, this is undoubtedly a red flag in the long term.
My analysis of long-term cycles suggests a significant cycle low in the early 2030s – I will try to post this analysis soon.

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