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Market Summary
There has been little new information since Thursday’s report. We got the expected bounce on Friday, and there is a very good chance that the bounce will continue for a few more days. I discussed some options in the premium content, but they could not be summarized here easily, which may confuse many. Long story short, look for some more up, then down.
Repeat from before:
The short-term analysis is becoming more in line with the intermediate—and long-term analyses, which suggests a reversal is due. The lightning could strike unexpectedly around the tops.
My longer-term expectations do not change. I will repeat from the weekend report: “Despite the market's resiliency and FOMO, I expect a correction in the next 2-4 months, initially.
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Market data as of close on 5 Apr. 2024.
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Yesterday, I posted some of my good charts on X (former Twitter). Reposting from X with additional comments.
For short updates between newsletters, follow me on X (formerly Twitter):
Chart of the Week
RTY has the 4Y cycle target of about 30+/-5% down. But it needs to stay below the upper boundary of the gray FLD band. This must be watched because if it crosses the upper boundary, it will invalidate the red box target and generate a green box target up to about a new high.
Chart of the Day
VALE is a Brazil-based metal mining (mostly iron ore) company with an 8% dividend yield. Respectable! Is there some bad news still to come? I do not know. But VALE has a very strong 210 trading days (TDs) cycle, which suggests it could trough within a couple of months and provide a nice opportunity.
Technical Analysis
Reposting from X (former Twitter) with additional comments:
Channels, trendlines, Resistance & gaps:
The pink triple-top resistance is formidable. But it would not be unusual to poke above it to clean out the shorts, only to revert below it again.
SPX is dancing around the olive trendline.
The gray channel is broken; the next step is retesting the DTL. This could happen even at a slightly higher high.
To move down, SPX also needs to break the light blue channel.
Notable gaps (orange rectangles) are magnets. Eventually, gaps get filled.
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