2024 Started As Expected

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Table of Contents

• Summary

• Technical Picture

• Sentiment

• Cycles Update

• Major Indexes Cycle Price Projections and EW Coun …

• VXX Update

• Annex 1- National Gas (NG)

Summary

• In late December I suggested:

  • Raise cash gradually;

  • USD up stocks, bonds, crypto, and gold down for the next couple of months;

• So far, this played out as expected, but now what?

• I think major indexes should start a bounce soon and then down into the March-April time frame;

• Stay tuned and read reports carefully, I will try to keep us on the right side of market moves

  • For serious traders/investors, I strongly suggest the premium newsletter (we have a 14-day free trial), where we provide abundant analysis details and interesting swing opportunities based on my multi-pronged analysis approach with a proprietary cycle analysis at its core.

Technical Picture

• Major indexes respected daily and weekly technical indicators we have been warning about in December and indexes started 2024 with a correction, but they have a long way to go to reset;

• Most hourly indicators are at oversold levels and are developing positive divergences relative to the price;

• This is illustrated in Figure 1 for NDX;

• It appears that NDX was attempting to bottom on Friday, but I would not be surprised to see one more down with even stronger positive divergences in technical, with or without some additional bounce before it.

Sentiment

• Intermediate-term sentiment indicators started to reset but have a long way to go before the “fear” becomes prevalent;

• Figure 2 shows a short-term combined sentiment model (includes 14 different sentiment indicators like put/call ratios, OPTIX, bull/bear spreads, fund flows, …) which Ideally should hit oversold levels before a stronger bounce (but does not always happen, e.g., in strong bullish markets).

Cycles Update

• Proprietary dynamic cycles were warning in the 2nd half of December that multiple cycles, including the N20W cycle, should peak in the last week of 2023;

• The Hurst cycle analysis, using Sentient Trader SW, of the 4-hour NDX chart in Figure 2 suggests that the N20W cycle indeed peaked, confirming the prediction by the dynamic cycle estimator;

• A bounce is expected due to shorter cycles, such as N10D-N40D, followed by an N20W cycle trough in the March-April time frame;

• As always, we will check periodically in the premier newsletter section for more accurate time estimates.

• Most indexes have short-term cycle projections down still a bit lower, but also have longer-term cycle projections that allow for still another high;

• EW count alternatives of most major indexes allow for still higher once this shorter-term correction is completed, if not already completed.

As Apple Goes, the Market Goes - Check out my latest YouTube video on AAPL;

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