Gold Peaking?

28 April 2025

Gold has had a fantastic run with a parabolic move in recent months.

However, as the dominant cycles from the weekly chart of gold futures, GC, indicate that gold is forming a multi-month and multi-year peak, Barron’s features a Gold Rush cover page.

This is a classical contrarian indicator, so-called Montgomery’s Magazine Cover Indicator.

Zooming in on the daily chart, we can see that the dominant cycles from the daily chart allow for one more push higher after the correction in progress. Then, longer cycles should pressure gold prices into September of 2025, and into 2026, as per the weekly cycle composite.

GC has a 10D cycle target of 3,140.6-3,207.8 depicted by the red rectangle in the chart below. If GC reaches that target, the median price will cross the Forward Line of Demarcation (FLD) with a 7/8 trading days offset, corresponding to the 20D cycle FLD. This, in turn, will create a 20D cycle price target of about 3,050, or lower. A bigger downside potential exists.

Switching to the monthly GC chart, we can see that GC approximately reached a long-term Cup & Handle (C&H) price target.

Switching to the daily GC chart, one can notice a sharp reversal after a parabolic rise. That is typical.

I have been tracking the black Elliott Wave count, but the sharp price reversal forced me to reconsider it and put forward the red, already peaked count.

Over the last few months, a part of the wave structure has allowed for different interpretations, so I will keep both alternatives open for now.  Depending on the depth and wave structure of the down move, we can likely eliminate one of the two counts.

However, regardless of whether one more higher high is achieved, the EW count and the weekly cycle composite suggest a prolonged correction of the gold price.

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